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Cracker Barrel (CBRL) Down 12% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 12% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Cracker Barrel due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Cracker Barrel Q4 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Beat
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store reported mixed fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with earnings missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues beating the same. Meanwhile, both the top and bottom lines fell from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
Cracker Barrel is still dealing with issues, including dismal traffic after changing its logo and pressure from commodity inflation and tariffs. But focused efforts are paying off, with improvements to the back-of-the-house, new service principles under "The Herschel Way," and improved menu items, including Uncle Herschel's breakfast and chicken selections. Along with disciplined resource allocation, a heightened focus on dining and guest experience, and loyalty membership that has surpassed 9 million and continues to expand, management remains cautiously optimistic that these efforts will help stabilize traffic and provide long-term shareholder value.
Q4 Earnings & Revenues of CBRL
For fourth-quarter fiscal 2025, the company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 74 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 78 cents. The company’s earnings declined 24.5% year over year.
Quarterly revenues of $868 million beat the consensus mark of $857 million. The top line decreased 2.9% year over year.
CBRL’s Comps Details
Comparable-store restaurant sales increased 5.4% year over year in the reported quarter compared with the same period in fiscal 2024, representing the fifth consecutive quarter of positive comparable-store restaurant sales growth. Comparable-store retail sales decreased 0.8% year over year. Our model predicted a comparable-store restaurant sales decline of 2.8%.
Operating Highlights of CBRL
In the fiscal fourth quarter, the cost of goods sold (excluding depreciation and rent) was $265 million, which was down 3% year over year. As a percentage of total revenues, the cost of goods sold (excluding depreciation and rent) increased 10 basis points year over year to 30.5%. Per our model, the metric was anticipated at 31.1%.
General and administrative expenses totaled $50.2 million, down 2% year over year. Our prediction for the metric was $53.1 million.
Adjusted net income in the fiscal fourth quarter amounted to $16.7 million compared with $22 million reported in the year-ago quarter. Our prediction for the metric was $16.1 million.
Balance Sheet of CBRL
As of Aug. 1, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were $39.6 million compared with $12 million as of Aug. 2, 2024.
Inventory at the fiscal fourth-quarter end reached $180.6 million, down 0.2% year over year.
Long-term debt as of Aug. 1, 2025, was $335.5 million compared with $476.6 million as of Aug. 2, 2024.
CBRL declared a cash dividend of 25 cents per share. The dividend will be paid out on Nov. 12, 2025, to its shareholders on record as of Oct. 17.
CBRL’s Revised FY26 Guidance
For fiscal 2026, the company expects revenues in the range of $3.35-$3.45 billion, based on an anticipated decline in customer traffic of 4% to 7% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to be between $150 million and $190 million.
Management expects commodity inflation to be in the 2.5-3.5% range. Hourly wage inflation is anticipated to be in the 3% to 4% range.
Capital expenditures are envisioned in the range of $135-$150 million.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.
The consensus estimate has shifted -299.24% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Cracker Barrel has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock has a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Cracker Barrel has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.
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Cracker Barrel (CBRL) Down 12% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 12% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Cracker Barrel due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Cracker Barrel Q4 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Beat
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store reported mixed fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with earnings missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues beating the same. Meanwhile, both the top and bottom lines fell from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
Cracker Barrel is still dealing with issues, including dismal traffic after changing its logo and pressure from commodity inflation and tariffs. But focused efforts are paying off, with improvements to the back-of-the-house, new service principles under "The Herschel Way," and improved menu items, including Uncle Herschel's breakfast and chicken selections. Along with disciplined resource allocation, a heightened focus on dining and guest experience, and loyalty membership that has surpassed 9 million and continues to expand, management remains cautiously optimistic that these efforts will help stabilize traffic and provide long-term shareholder value.
Q4 Earnings & Revenues of CBRL
For fourth-quarter fiscal 2025, the company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 74 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 78 cents. The company’s earnings declined 24.5% year over year.
Quarterly revenues of $868 million beat the consensus mark of $857 million. The top line decreased 2.9% year over year.
CBRL’s Comps Details
Comparable-store restaurant sales increased 5.4% year over year in the reported quarter compared with the same period in fiscal 2024, representing the fifth consecutive quarter of positive comparable-store restaurant sales growth. Comparable-store retail sales decreased 0.8% year over year. Our model predicted a comparable-store restaurant sales decline of 2.8%.
Operating Highlights of CBRL
In the fiscal fourth quarter, the cost of goods sold (excluding depreciation and rent) was $265 million, which was down 3% year over year. As a percentage of total revenues, the cost of goods sold (excluding depreciation and rent) increased 10 basis points year over year to 30.5%. Per our model, the metric was anticipated at 31.1%.
General and administrative expenses totaled $50.2 million, down 2% year over year. Our prediction for the metric was $53.1 million.
Adjusted net income in the fiscal fourth quarter amounted to $16.7 million compared with $22 million reported in the year-ago quarter. Our prediction for the metric was $16.1 million.
Balance Sheet of CBRL
As of Aug. 1, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were $39.6 million compared with $12 million as of Aug. 2, 2024.
Inventory at the fiscal fourth-quarter end reached $180.6 million, down 0.2% year over year.
Long-term debt as of Aug. 1, 2025, was $335.5 million compared with $476.6 million as of Aug. 2, 2024.
CBRL declared a cash dividend of 25 cents per share. The dividend will be paid out on Nov. 12, 2025, to its shareholders on record as of Oct. 17.
CBRL’s Revised FY26 Guidance
For fiscal 2026, the company expects revenues in the range of $3.35-$3.45 billion, based on an anticipated decline in customer traffic of 4% to 7% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to be between $150 million and $190 million.
Management expects commodity inflation to be in the 2.5-3.5% range. Hourly wage inflation is anticipated to be in the 3% to 4% range.
Capital expenditures are envisioned in the range of $135-$150 million.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.
The consensus estimate has shifted -299.24% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Cracker Barrel has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock has a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Cracker Barrel has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.