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NIO or RIVN: Which of These EV stocks is Better Positioned Now?
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Key Takeaways
{\"0\":\"NIO shares have rallied 70% so far in 2025, while Rivian stock is up only 10%.\",\"1\":\"NIO\'s ES8, ONVO L90, and Firefly brands are likely to drive strong sales growth and margin gains.\",\"2\":\"Rivian faces lower deliveries and widened EBITDA loss, and pinning hopes on the future R2 model.\"}
China’s NIO Inc. (NIO - Free Report) and California’s Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN - Free Report) are two noted electric vehicle (EV) players, but their market backdrops are quite different. In China, intense competition is balanced by strong EV adoption, while in the United States, President Trump’s unfriendly EV stance and the looming expiration of tax credits are likely to slow EV demand. Both companies are unprofitable now, yet one is making bolder moves to secure its footing and edge closer to profitability.
So far in 2025, NIO shares have rallied roughly 70%, while Rivian stock is up just 10%. Let’s break down the fundamentals to see which stock deserves a place in your portfolio right now.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Case for NIO
NIO’s portfolio includes a broad range of sedans and SUVs such as the ES6, EC6, ET5, ET7 and ET9. The company will commence deliveries of its third-generation ES8 SUV on Sept. 20. Beyond the NIO brand, its mass-market ONVO brand, with models like L60 and L90, is being well received. Apart from the namesake and ONVO brand, its premium small car brand, Firefly, is also helping lift sales volumes.
In the last reported quarter, NIO’s deliveries were up 25.6% to 72,056 units. This was especially driven by growth in mass-market ONVO brand sales. The launch of ES8 will further boost sales, given the hype and excitement around it. Pre-sales of the three-row ES8 began on Aug. 21, and early demand appears strong, with pre-orders surpassing those of NIO’s ONVO L90 model, as confirmed by NIO President Qin Lihong.
The company expects third-quarter deliveries in the range of 87,000-91,000 units, implying 41-47% year-over-year growth. The fourth quarter will mark the first full quarter of ES8 and L90 sales, with the company aiming to deliver 50,000 vehicles across each of its brands — NIO, ONVO and Firefly.
NIO also expects vehicle margin to improve in the third quarter with full-quarter deliveries of these models and the launch of L90. The L90 and ES8 aim for roughly 20% gross margin, backed by in-house innovation and cost control.
Another important catalyst for NIO is its battery swap technology. It has deployed more than 3,500 power swap stations worldwide, including 1,000+ on China’s highways, with over 84 million swaps completed. Additionally, NIO's lighter and more efficient battery packs reduce weight and cost while matching rivals' range, thereby boosting customer interest in its latest models.
Just two days back, NIO completed its $1.16 billion equity offering. The funds would be used to boost research and development for smart EV technologies, develop future platforms and models, strengthen its battery swapping and charging network, and bolster its balance sheet. However, the capital raise brings with it shareholder dilution concerns.
The Case for Rivian
Rivian’s lineup includes the R1T electric pickup and the R1S SUV. The delivery numbers haven’t been encouraging of late. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered 10,661 vehicles, down from 13,790 a year earlier, marking the second straight quarter of year-over-year declines. While the company expects the third quarter to be its strongest delivery quarter of the year, it should also be noted that Rivian has paused operations at its Normal, IL factory beginning this Monday for a three-week period to prepare for the launch of its more affordable R2 model.
Rivian has pinned hopes on its R2 model and expects it to be a game-changer. This week, it broke ground on its Georgia factory, which will manufacture midsize R2 and R3 crossovers. That said, the R2 model will be launched in the first half of 2026, at a starting price of around $45,000. Management expects to deliver significant cost savings—nearly 50% lower material costs compared to R1, along with halved production expenses.
Apart from the R2 model, there is another key growth driver of Rivian. And that is its strategic partnership with German auto giant Volkswagen, which will invest up to $5.8 billion in Rivian and its joint venture by 2027. So far, $3.3 billion has already been committed, including $1 billion investment received on June 30 after the achievement of a gross profit milestone. RIVNreported a gross profit of $206 million in the first quarter of 2025, marking its second consecutive quarter of positive gross profit and its highest gross margin to date.
But the momentum couldn’t last long. The company incurred a gross loss of $206 million in the second quarter of 2025 due to lower production and sales volumes and supply chain complexities amid trade and tariff policies. RIVN doesn’t expect gross profit for the full year; it only expects to achieve breakeven.
Challenges related to federal tax credits expiration, tariffs and high operating expenses are likely to weigh on Rivian’s margins and cash flow in the near term. The company anticipates higher operating expenses in the second half of the year as it moves R2 closer to production. In addition, due to the changes in certain regulatory credit programs, it won’t generate revenues from them for the rest of 2025. As a result, Rivian now projects total regulatory credit sales of about $160 million for 2025, down from the earlier estimate of $300 million.
Also, it has reduced its delivery guidance. Rivian now expects 2025 deliveries of 40,000-46,000, down from 51,579 units in 2024. It also widened its projected EBITDA loss to $2-$2.25 billion from $1.7-$1.9 billion guided earlier.
What Does the Zacks Estimate Say for NIO & RIVN?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NIO’s 2025 and 2026 bottom line indicates a year-over-year improvement of 34% and 74%, respectively. The estimates for the same have moved north for the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RIVN’s 2025 and 2026 bottom line indicates a year-over-year improvement of 32% and 17%, respectively. The estimates for the same have moved south in the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
NIO Seems Stronger Now
NIO and Rivian both face challenges as unprofitable EV makers, but their outlooks are not the same. NIO is seeing stronger sales momentum, backed by its wider model lineup and battery swap network. Its growth forecasts are more promising, with bottom-line estimates moving in the right direction in recent months. Rivian, meanwhile, is struggling with falling deliveries, widening losses, and heavy reliance on the yet-to-be-launched R2. Estimates for Rivian have also been cut. With a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) versus Rivian’s Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), NIO looks better positioned right now.
Image: Bigstock
NIO or RIVN: Which of These EV stocks is Better Positioned Now?
Key Takeaways
China’s NIO Inc. (NIO - Free Report) and California’s Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN - Free Report) are two noted electric vehicle (EV) players, but their market backdrops are quite different. In China, intense competition is balanced by strong EV adoption, while in the United States, President Trump’s unfriendly EV stance and the looming expiration of tax credits are likely to slow EV demand. Both companies are unprofitable now, yet one is making bolder moves to secure its footing and edge closer to profitability.
So far in 2025, NIO shares have rallied roughly 70%, while Rivian stock is up just 10%. Let’s break down the fundamentals to see which stock deserves a place in your portfolio right now.
The Case for NIO
NIO’s portfolio includes a broad range of sedans and SUVs such as the ES6, EC6, ET5, ET7 and ET9. The company will commence deliveries of its third-generation ES8 SUV on Sept. 20. Beyond the NIO brand, its mass-market ONVO brand, with models like L60 and L90, is being well received. Apart from the namesake and ONVO brand, its premium small car brand, Firefly, is also helping lift sales volumes.
In the last reported quarter, NIO’s deliveries were up 25.6% to 72,056 units. This was especially driven by growth in mass-market ONVO brand sales. The launch of ES8 will further boost sales, given the hype and excitement around it. Pre-sales of the three-row ES8 began on Aug. 21, and early demand appears strong, with pre-orders surpassing those of NIO’s ONVO L90 model, as confirmed by NIO President Qin Lihong.
The company expects third-quarter deliveries in the range of 87,000-91,000 units, implying 41-47% year-over-year growth. The fourth quarter will mark the first full quarter of ES8 and L90 sales, with the company aiming to deliver 50,000 vehicles across each of its brands — NIO, ONVO and Firefly.
NIO also expects vehicle margin to improve in the third quarter with full-quarter deliveries of these models and the launch of L90. The L90 and ES8 aim for roughly 20% gross margin, backed by in-house innovation and cost control.
Another important catalyst for NIO is its battery swap technology. It has deployed more than 3,500 power swap stations worldwide, including 1,000+ on China’s highways, with over 84 million swaps completed. Additionally, NIO's lighter and more efficient battery packs reduce weight and cost while matching rivals' range, thereby boosting customer interest in its latest models.
Just two days back, NIO completed its $1.16 billion equity offering. The funds would be used to boost research and development for smart EV technologies, develop future platforms and models, strengthen its battery swapping and charging network, and bolster its balance sheet. However, the capital raise brings with it shareholder dilution concerns.
The Case for Rivian
Rivian’s lineup includes the R1T electric pickup and the R1S SUV. The delivery numbers haven’t been encouraging of late. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered 10,661 vehicles, down from 13,790 a year earlier, marking the second straight quarter of year-over-year declines. While the company expects the third quarter to be its strongest delivery quarter of the year, it should also be noted that Rivian has paused operations at its Normal, IL factory beginning this Monday for a three-week period to prepare for the launch of its more affordable R2 model.
Rivian has pinned hopes on its R2 model and expects it to be a game-changer. This week, it broke ground on its Georgia factory, which will manufacture midsize R2 and R3 crossovers. That said, the R2 model will be launched in the first half of 2026, at a starting price of around $45,000. Management expects to deliver significant cost savings—nearly 50% lower material costs compared to R1, along with halved production expenses.
Apart from the R2 model, there is another key growth driver of Rivian. And that is its strategic partnership with German auto giant Volkswagen, which will invest up to $5.8 billion in Rivian and its joint venture by 2027. So far, $3.3 billion has already been committed, including $1 billion investment received on June 30 after the achievement of a gross profit milestone. RIVNreported a gross profit of $206 million in the first quarter of 2025, marking its second consecutive quarter of positive gross profit and its highest gross margin to date.
But the momentum couldn’t last long. The company incurred a gross loss of $206 million in the second quarter of 2025 due to lower production and sales volumes and supply chain complexities amid trade and tariff policies. RIVN doesn’t expect gross profit for the full year; it only expects to achieve breakeven.
Challenges related to federal tax credits expiration, tariffs and high operating expenses are likely to weigh on Rivian’s margins and cash flow in the near term. The company anticipates higher operating expenses in the second half of the year as it moves R2 closer to production. In addition, due to the changes in certain regulatory credit programs, it won’t generate revenues from them for the rest of 2025. As a result, Rivian now projects total regulatory credit sales of about $160 million for 2025, down from the earlier estimate of $300 million.
Also, it has reduced its delivery guidance. Rivian now expects 2025 deliveries of 40,000-46,000, down from 51,579 units in 2024. It also widened its projected EBITDA loss to $2-$2.25 billion from $1.7-$1.9 billion guided earlier.
What Does the Zacks Estimate Say for NIO & RIVN?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NIO’s 2025 and 2026 bottom line indicates a year-over-year improvement of 34% and 74%, respectively. The estimates for the same have moved north for the past 60 days.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RIVN’s 2025 and 2026 bottom line indicates a year-over-year improvement of 32% and 17%, respectively. The estimates for the same have moved south in the past 60 days.
NIO Seems Stronger Now
NIO and Rivian both face challenges as unprofitable EV makers, but their outlooks are not the same. NIO is seeing stronger sales momentum, backed by its wider model lineup and battery swap network. Its growth forecasts are more promising, with bottom-line estimates moving in the right direction in recent months. Rivian, meanwhile, is struggling with falling deliveries, widening losses, and heavy reliance on the yet-to-be-launched R2. Estimates for Rivian have also been cut. With a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) versus Rivian’s Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), NIO looks better positioned right now.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.