The holiday shopping season is a critical driver of revenues for retailers. This year, the stakes are even higher due to a mix of economic factors, including persistent inflation and the unpredictable effects of trade policies. Despite these challenges, Deloitte's annual holiday retail forecast paints a picture of resilient consumer spending, albeit at a tempered pace compared to last year.

According to Deloitte, U.S. holiday retail sales are projected to rise between 2.9% and 3.4% during the November-to-January period. This translates to an estimated total of $1.61 trillion to $1.62 trillion. While this forecast represents a slower growth rate compared to the 4.2% increase experienced last year, it still signifies a robust and positive trajectory for the retail sector. 

A key driver behind this projected growth is the expectation of higher disposable income for shoppers. Even as inflation remains a concern, consumers will continue to spend, particularly during peak holiday weeks when promotional activity tends to accelerate. Major retailers like SharkNinja, Inc. (SN Quick QuoteSN - Free Report) , Genesco Inc. (GCO Quick QuoteGCO - Free Report) , Casey’s General Stores, Inc. (CASY Quick QuoteCASY - Free Report) and Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM Quick QuoteSFM - Free Report) are likely to benefit from this uptick as shoppers look for value-driven deals and seasonal favorites. 

Within the broader forecast, a standout performer is the e-commerce sector. Deloitte predicts a strong growth rate of 7% to 9% for online sales this holiday season. This healthy expansion is expected to result in total e-commerce sales between $305 billion and $310.7 billion. The continued shift toward online shopping highlights how consumers are increasingly leveraging digital channels to find deals and stretch their budgets amid economic pressures.

The upcoming holiday season offers a cautiously optimistic outlook for U.S. retailers. With steady overall sales growth and a strong e-commerce push, companies that can balance promotional intensity with profitability stand to capture the most value as consumers head into the peak shopping period.

Past-Year Stock Price Performance of SN, GCO, CASY & SFM

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4 Prominent Retail Stocks

SharkNinja: Innovation Engine & Global White Space

SharkNinja’s growth model is underpinned by relentless product innovation, a viral marketing engine, and a highly diversified supply chain that reduces risk and enhances agility. The company continues to create durable consumer franchises across cooking, cleaning, food preparation, and beauty & home environment categories while expanding into international markets with strong momentum. Its disciplined execution and category-disrupting product launches have consistently translated into share gains. SharkNinja’s innovation-driven strategy positions it to capture white space globally and sustain outsized growth.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SharkNinja’s current financial-year sales and EPS suggests growth of 14.4% and 15.6%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figures. This Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 15.2%, on average. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Genesco: Journeys Momentum & Brand Transformation

Genesco is benefiting from strong momentum at Journeys, where a refreshed product mix, elevated brand storytelling and upgraded store formats are fueling share gains among style-conscious teens. Johnston & Murphy is also regaining traction as it evolves into a broader lifestyle brand with fresh product innovation and brand repositioning initiatives. Strategic investments in loyalty, remodels and new partnerships further strengthen the portfolio. With a sharpened focus on product, brand identity and customer experience, Genesco is positioning itself for sustainable growth and long-term market leadership.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Genesco’s current financial-year sales and EPS suggests growth of 3% and 67%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figures. This Zacks Rank #1 company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 28.1%, on average.

Casey’s: Prepared Foods, Scale & Convenience Edge

Casey’s continues to leverage its scale, private-label portfolio and digital engagement to reinforce its leadership in convenience retail. Traffic and basket growth are being fueled by menu innovation, data-driven promotions and the reach of nearly 9.5 million Rewards members. Strategic priorities such as Fuel 3.0, disciplined cost management, and new store expansion are enhancing both margins and competitive positioning. With a proven growth formula and a robust pipeline of initiatives across food, fuel and digital, Casey’s is well-positioned to sustain momentum and create long-term shareholder value.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Casey’s current financial-year sales and EPS calls for growth of 10.7% and 8.7%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figures. This Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 24.6%, on average.

Sprouts Farmers: Organic First, Loyalty & Digital Expansion

Sprouts Farmers has been steadily carving out a unique position in the grocery space with its differentiated assortment of fresh, natural and organic products that resonate strongly with health-conscious consumers. Investments in innovation, supply chain self-sufficiency, and store expansion are enhancing scalability and profitability. The company is also building deeper customer engagement through its new loyalty program and accelerating digital penetration with strong e-commerce growth. By aligning closely with consumer trends and reinforcing its operational strengths, Sprouts Farmers is poised to capture market share and sustain its growth trajectory.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Sprouts Farmers’ current financial-year sales and EPS suggests growth of 15.7% and 40.8%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figures. This Zacks Rank #2 company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 13.4%, on average.