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American Financial Banks on Renewal Pricing Amid Cost Woes

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Key Takeaways

  • {\"0\":\"AFG is positioned for growth via increased exposures, strong renewal rates, and strategic acquisitions.\",\"1\":\"AFG boasts 35 consecutive quarters of renewal rate increases; 2025 combined ratio expected at 92.5%.\",\"2\":\"AFG\'s strong capital position supports acquisitions, special dividends, and buybacks.\"}

American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG - Free Report) is well-poised to gain from increased exposures, a good renewal rate environment, improved combined ratio, and prudent capital deployment.

New business opportunities, increased exposure, and a good renewal rate environment, coupled with additional crop premiums from the Crop Risk Services acquisition, position AFG well for growth.

American Financial, a niche player in the P&C market, is likely to benefit from strategic acquisitions and improved pricing. Improved industry fundamentals drive overall growth.

American Financial witnessed average renewal pricing across the entire P&C Group. It intends to maintain satisfactory rates in P&C renewal pricing in the future. AFG has reported overall renewal rate increases for 35 consecutive quarters, and it is expected to achieve overall renewal rate increases over prospective loss ratio trends to meet or exceed targeted returns. The property and casualty insurer expects to achieve overall renewal rate increases in excess of prospective loss ratio trends to meet or exceed targeted returns. AFG intends to maintain satisfactory rates in P&C renewal pricing in the future. 

Its combined ratio has been better than the industry average for more than two decades. Specialty niche focus, product line diversification, and underwriting discipline should help AFG outperform the industry’s underwriting results. For 2025, the company expects the combined ratio of 92.5%.

Capital Deployment

American Financial has traditionally maintained moderate adjusted financial leverage around 20%, with good cash flow and an interest coverage ratio. AFG has a strong capital position and expects its operations to continue to generate significant excess capital throughout the remainder of 2025, which provides ample opportunity for acquisitions, special dividends, or share repurchases.

The property and casualty insurer has increased its dividend for 18 straight years, apart from paying special dividends occasionally. This reflects its financial stability, which stems from robust operating profitability in the P&C segment, stellar investment performance, and effective capital management.

Notably, the 10-year compound annual growth rate for the company's regular annual dividends stands at an impressive 12.4%. This track record underscores its prudent financial management and stability.

Risk

However, American Financial’s earnings have traditionally been affected by catastrophes. Even drought, which does not otherwise qualify as a catastrophe, had impacted its earnings, given its exposure to the crop business.  Irrespective of the catastrophe mitigation techniques deployed by it, exposure to weather-related calamities makes its earnings volatile. 

AFG has also been experiencing an increase in expenses due to higher P&C insurance losses & expenses, annuity, life, accident & health benefits & expenses, interest charges on borrowed money, expenses of managed investment entities, and other expenses. The company must strive to generate revenue growth at a higher magnitude than that of an increase in expenses, else the margin could be dented.

Other Industry Players

Other players from the property and casualty insurance industry include NMI Holdings Inc. (NMIH - Free Report) , Axis Capital Holdings Limited (AXS - Free Report) , and Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL - Free Report) . 

NMI Holdings’ earnings surpassed estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed in one, the average surprise being 5.62%. 

NMI Holdings is well-poised for growth on new primary insurance written, direct primary insurance in force, and a better risk-based capital ratio. Its mortgage insurance portfolio is expected to create a strong foundation for future earnings. The mortgage insurer should continue to gain from a strong mortgage origination market and increased private mortgage insurance penetration rates. 

Axis Capital’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 13.39%. 

Axis Capital continues to build on its Specialty Insurance and Reinsurance business to pave the way for long-term growth. Its focus on deploying resources prudently while enhancing efficiencies, improving its portfolio mix, and underwriting profitability bodes well. Its collaborations with distribution partners enable AXIS to widen its reach. AXS effectively deploys capital to boost shareholder value.

Arch Capital’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 12.21%. 

Arch Capital boasts a strong product portfolio and has a solid track record of premium growth. Premiums should benefit from new business opportunities, rate increases, growth in existing accounts, and growth in Australian single-premium mortgage insurance. A solid capital position shields it from market volatility. 

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