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Vistra is Set to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?
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Key Takeaways
{\"0\":\"VST is projected to report Q2 revenues of $5.04B, up 31.14% year over year.\",\"1\":\"Second-quarter EPS is estimated at 98 cents, indicating an 8.89% year-over-year increase.\",\"2\":\"VST\'s Q2 may benefit from rising electricity demand and $5.2B in share buybacks through May 2025.\"}
Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) is expected to deliver improvements in its top line and its earnings per share when it reports second-quarter 2025 results on Aug. 7, before market open.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VST’s second-quarter revenues is pegged at $5.04 billion, indicating an increase of 31.14% from the year-ago reported figure.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VST’s second-quarter earnings is pegged at 98 cents per share, indicating an 8.89% increase from the year-ago reported figure.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Vistra’s Positive Earnings Surprise
Vistra surpassed earnings expectations in one of the last four quarters, reported on par earnings once and missed twice, with the average surprise being 58.13%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What the Zacks Model Unveils
Our model does not conclusively predict a likely earnings beat for Vistra this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you can see below.
Investors may consider the following players from the same sector, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
Sempra Energy (SRE - Free Report) is likely to come up with an earnings beat when it reports second-quarter results on Aug. 7. It has an Earnings ESP of +0.60% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
SRE’s long-term (three to five years) earnings growth rate is 7.94%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pinned at 83 cents per share, which implies a year-over-year decrease of 6.7%.
MDU Resources Group (MDU - Free Report) is likely to come up with an earnings beat when it reports second-quarter results on Aug. 7. It has an Earnings ESP of +20% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
MDU’s long-term earnings growth rate is 6.94%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings is pinned at 13 cents per share, which implies a year-over-year decrease of 59.4%.
Factors Likely to Have Shaped VST’s Q2 Earnings
Vistra's second-quarter performance likely benefited from increasing demand for clean electricity across its service area. This surge in demand has been largely fueled by the rapid growth of large U.S. data centers and the ongoing electrification of the Permian Basin. With a diversified generation portfolio that includes a high-quality nuclear fleet, Vistra is well-positioned to capitalize on this accelerating load growth and derive meaningful benefits.
VST’s second-quarter earnings are likely to have benefited from its integrated business model. In the evolving market conditions, Vistra is focused on providing reliable and affordable electricity to its customers, which is boosting the company's revenues.
The repurchase of shares has been increasing shareholders' value and boosting earnings per share of the company, and is expected to have a positive impact on first-quarter earnings. The company executed $5.2 billion in share repurchases from November 2021 through May 2, 2025, which lowered outstanding shares and boosted earnings per share. VST’s management expects to continue with the buyback of shares and aims to repurchase at least $1.5 billion worth of outstanding shares between 2025 and 2026, which will definitely have a positive impact on earnings.
Vistra utilizes a hedging program to reduce the impact of market changes and price fluctuations, and 100% of its 2025 generation volume is hedged. This extensive hedging has helped to secure its second-quarter generation volumes.
Vistra’s second-quarter earnings are likely to have benefited from increasing electricity demand in its key service regions. This growth is being driven by several factors, including the electrification of the oil and gas sector — particularly in the Permian Basin — the development of new LNG infrastructure, the expansion of large AI-driven data centers, and the continued reshoring of industrial operations in the U.S.
VST’s Price Performance
VST’s shares have gained 173.7% in the past year compared with the industry’s rally of 15.2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
VST Stock Trading at a Premium
Vistra is currently valued at a premium compared to its industry on a forward 12-month P/E basis.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis
Vistra is growing its generation capacity through a combination of organic initiatives and strategic acquisitions. Its integrated business model provides a significant competitive advantage compared to non-integrated counterparts.
However, operating nuclear power plants involves considerable risks that could materially impact the company’s revenue and financial performance. Additionally, Vistra may lack adequate insurance coverage to fully offset these risks and potential liabilities.
Wrapping Up
Vistra operates in a region experiencing growing demand for clean electricity, and the company is expanding its clean energy generation capacity through both acquisitions and organic growth to meet this demand and capitalize on the opportunity. Its stable hedging strategy and an expanding residential customer base further strengthen its position.
However, with the stock currently trading at a premium, it may be prudent for new investors to hold off and wait for a more attractive entry point, potentially after the second-quarter earnings release.
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Vistra is Set to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?
Key Takeaways
Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) is expected to deliver improvements in its top line and its earnings per share when it reports second-quarter 2025 results on Aug. 7, before market open.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VST’s second-quarter revenues is pegged at $5.04 billion, indicating an increase of 31.14% from the year-ago reported figure.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VST’s second-quarter earnings is pegged at 98 cents per share, indicating an 8.89% increase from the year-ago reported figure.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Vistra’s Positive Earnings Surprise
Vistra surpassed earnings expectations in one of the last four quarters, reported on par earnings once and missed twice, with the average surprise being 58.13%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What the Zacks Model Unveils
Our model does not conclusively predict a likely earnings beat for Vistra this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you can see below.
Vistra Corp. Price and EPS Surprise
Vistra Corp. price-eps-surprise | Vistra Corp. Quote
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Vistra has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.
Zacks Rank: VST currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Other Stocks to Consider
Investors may consider the following players from the same sector, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
Sempra Energy (SRE - Free Report) is likely to come up with an earnings beat when it reports second-quarter results on Aug. 7. It has an Earnings ESP of +0.60% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
SRE’s long-term (three to five years) earnings growth rate is 7.94%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pinned at 83 cents per share, which implies a year-over-year decrease of 6.7%.
MDU Resources Group (MDU - Free Report) is likely to come up with an earnings beat when it reports second-quarter results on Aug. 7. It has an Earnings ESP of +20% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
MDU’s long-term earnings growth rate is 6.94%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings is pinned at 13 cents per share, which implies a year-over-year decrease of 59.4%.
Factors Likely to Have Shaped VST’s Q2 Earnings
Vistra's second-quarter performance likely benefited from increasing demand for clean electricity across its service area. This surge in demand has been largely fueled by the rapid growth of large U.S. data centers and the ongoing electrification of the Permian Basin. With a diversified generation portfolio that includes a high-quality nuclear fleet, Vistra is well-positioned to capitalize on this accelerating load growth and derive meaningful benefits.
VST’s second-quarter earnings are likely to have benefited from its integrated business model. In the evolving market conditions, Vistra is focused on providing reliable and affordable electricity to its customers, which is boosting the company's revenues.
The repurchase of shares has been increasing shareholders' value and boosting earnings per share of the company, and is expected to have a positive impact on first-quarter earnings. The company executed $5.2 billion in share repurchases from November 2021 through May 2, 2025, which lowered outstanding shares and boosted earnings per share. VST’s management expects to continue with the buyback of shares and aims to repurchase at least $1.5 billion worth of outstanding shares between 2025 and 2026, which will definitely have a positive impact on earnings.
Vistra utilizes a hedging program to reduce the impact of market changes and price fluctuations, and 100% of its 2025 generation volume is hedged. This extensive hedging has helped to secure its second-quarter generation volumes.
Vistra’s second-quarter earnings are likely to have benefited from increasing electricity demand in its key service regions. This growth is being driven by several factors, including the electrification of the oil and gas sector — particularly in the Permian Basin — the development of new LNG infrastructure, the expansion of large AI-driven data centers, and the continued reshoring of industrial operations in the U.S.
VST’s Price Performance
VST’s shares have gained 173.7% in the past year compared with the industry’s rally of 15.2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
VST Stock Trading at a Premium
Vistra is currently valued at a premium compared to its industry on a forward 12-month P/E basis.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis
Vistra is growing its generation capacity through a combination of organic initiatives and strategic acquisitions. Its integrated business model provides a significant competitive advantage compared to non-integrated counterparts.
However, operating nuclear power plants involves considerable risks that could materially impact the company’s revenue and financial performance. Additionally, Vistra may lack adequate insurance coverage to fully offset these risks and potential liabilities.
Wrapping Up
Vistra operates in a region experiencing growing demand for clean electricity, and the company is expanding its clean energy generation capacity through both acquisitions and organic growth to meet this demand and capitalize on the opportunity. Its stable hedging strategy and an expanding residential customer base further strengthen its position.
However, with the stock currently trading at a premium, it may be prudent for new investors to hold off and wait for a more attractive entry point, potentially after the second-quarter earnings release.