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Will Strong Credit Trading Volume Aid MarketAxess in Q2 Earnings?

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MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX - Free Report) is scheduled to release second-quarter 2025 results on Aug. 6, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $1.94 per share, which indicates an improvement of 12.8% from the prior-year quarter’s number. 

The second-quarter earnings estimate has witnessed four upward estimate revisions against three downward movements over the past 30 days. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $218 million, implying 10.1% growth from the year-ago quarter’s figure.

MKTX’s Earnings Surprise History

MarketAxess’ bottom line beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 2.67%. This is depicted in the chart below:

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

MarketAxess Holdings Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

MarketAxess Holdings Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

MarketAxess Holdings Inc. price-eps-surprise | MarketAxess Holdings Inc. Quote

What Our Quantitative Model Unveils for MarketAxess

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for MarketAxess this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here.

Earnings ESP: MarketAxess has an Earnings ESP of +0.95% because the Most Accurate Estimate of $1.96 per share is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.94. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: MKTX currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.  

Factors Likely to Shape MKTX’s Q2 Results

Higher trading volumes and robust market share gains across most of MKTX’s credit product lines are expected to have driven credit commission revenues for the second quarter. However, the upside is likely to have been partially offset by a reduction in average variable transaction fees. 

We expect credit commission revenues to be $138.4 million in the to-be-reported quarter, which indicates an improvement of 8.4% year over year. Our estimate for the total credit volume indicates a 10% year-over-year increase. 

Solid trading volumes in the international business, coupled with higher revenues from MarketAxess’ new product areas like emerging markets, municipals and U.S. government bonds, are expected to have contributed to its overall commission growth in the second quarter. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for commissions is pegged at $189 million, indicating 9.9% growth from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. We expect it to grow 7.6% year over year. 

The consensus estimate for second-quarter total trading volume is pegged at 2.9 million, indicating 33.3% growth from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. Our estimate is 2.5 million .   

Increased utilization of its data product suite and new contracts is likely to have provided an impetus for information services revenues, one of MKTX’s revenue components, in the to-be-reported quarter. The consensus mark for information services revenues is pinned at $13.4 million, which implies a 6.5% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. We project it to be $13 million, up 3.5% year over year.

However, MKTX’s margins are likely to have been hurt by an increase in operating expenses, resulting from continuous investments to upgrade trading and data capabilities. We forecast total expenses to be $125.7 million in the second quarter, indicating an increase of 8.1% year over year.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other companies from the Finance space, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.19% and a Zacks Rank of 1 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGY’s second-quarter earnings is pegged at 69 cents per share, which indicates a nearly seven-fold increase from the prior-year quarter.

Pagaya Technologies’ earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark twice, the average surprise being 12.91%. 

StepStone Group Inc. (STEP - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +7.63% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for STEP’s second-quarter earnings is pegged at 44 cents per share, which implies a 8.3% decline from the year-ago quarter’s figure.  

StepStone’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and matched the mark once, the average surprise being 20.86%.

Americold Realty Trust, Inc. (COLD - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.74% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COLD’s second-quarter earnings is pegged at 34 cents per share, which implies a 10.5% decrease from the year-ago quarter’s figure.  

Americold Realty’s earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters, matched the mark once and missed the same in the remaining one occasion, the average surprise being 3.79%

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