Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ Quick QuoteCNQ - Free Report) is set to release second-quarter 2025 results on Aug. 7. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 44 cents per share on revenues of $6.28 billion.

Let us delve into the factors that might have influenced CNQ’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Before that, it is worth taking a look at the company’s performance in the last reported quarter.

Highlights of CNQ’s Q1 Earnings & Surprise History

In the last reported quarter, the Calgary-based oil and gas equipment and services company beat the consensus mark, driven by higher realized prices for natural gas, oil and NGLs. CNQ reported adjusted earnings per share of 81 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 73 cents. Total revenues of $7.6 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.8 billion.

CNQ’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate thrice in the trailing four quarters and missed in the other one, delivering an average surprise of 3.95%.

This is depicted in the chart below:

Trend in CNQ’s Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings has not witnessed any movement in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 31.25% year-over-year decrease. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues implies a 5.05% decrease from the year-ago period.

Factors to Consider Ahead of CNQ’s Q2 Results

CNQ makes money by finding and producing oil and gas, which it sells to other companies. It also owns pipelines to move the oil and gas around. The company has a varied range of products, including heavy and light crude oil, natural gas, bitumen and synthetic crude oil. CNQ’s core operations are focused on Western Canada, the United Kingdom’s sector of the North Sea and offshore Africa, which includes Côte d’Ivoire, Gabon and South Africa.

After a multi-year slump, North America’s natural gas prices rebounded in early 2025, with Henry Hub spot prices averaging $3.19 per million British thermal units in the second quarter of 2025 and AECO benchmarks showing year-over-year improvement. These price gains are expected to have partially offset lingering headwinds from prior industry lows and supported CNQ’s realized pricing, particularly given its production-weighted exposure to Western Canada.

CNQ had a strong start to 2025, with record production in the first quarter, setting a solid pace for the second quarter. The company’s recent acquisitions, like Chevron’s stake in the Athabasca Oil Sands Project and a big position in the Duvernay shale, are expected to have added more production volumes in the second quarter of 2025. Overall, CNQ has been aiming for around 12% production growth this year, helped by both these deals and their ongoing drilling programs. This factor is likely to have boosted their output in the second quarter of 2025 and kept the momentum going throughout the year.

On the downside, CNQ’s revenues are likely to have suffered in the quarter to be reported. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $6.28 billion, down 5.1% from $6.62 billion in the year-ago quarter. This can be attributed to the poor performance of the Exploration and Production segments. 

On the other hand, the newly imposed U.S. tariffs on Canadian oil and gas exports since March 2025 are expected to create additional cost burdens and competitive disadvantages for CNQ. These tariffs are likely to have reduced realized margins on exports to the United States, Canada’s largest customer, and introduced uncertainty into pricing and supply contracts. We expect this to have weighed directly on quarterly earnings and increased business risk for second-quarter 2025. On the cost side, CNQ faces rising expenses which might have impacted profitability.

Total expenses for the second quarter are estimated at C$7.13 billion, representing a 4.3% increase compared with C$6.80 billion in the corresponding quarter last year. Production costs are estimated to rise by 2.4% to C$2.03 billion, including transportation and blending. Feedstock costs are forecasted to surge 14.9%, reaching C$3.05 billion.

What Does Our Model Predict for CNQ?

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Williams Companies this reporting cycle. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is exactly the case here.

Earnings ESP of CNQ: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is +4.89%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

CNQ’s Zacks Rank: CNQ currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some firms from the other space that you may want to consider, as these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Plains Group (PAGP Quick QuotePAGP - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +50.00% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The company is set to release its earnings on Aug. 8. With a current market capitalization of roughly $3.80 billion, Plains Group has seen a 7.3% increase in its stock price over the last 12 months. Plains Group, which operates as Plains All American Pipeline, L.P., is a master limited partnership that owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure. The company specializes in providing logistics services for crude oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas, with an extensive network of pipelines, storage facilities and terminals across the United States and Canada.

fuboTV (FUBO Quick QuoteFUBO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +7.14% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is set to release its earnings on Aug. 8.

fuboTV is an American over-the-top sports streaming television service that delivers live TV over the internet. The company, which markets as a "sports-first" service, also offers a wide array of news and entertainment channels, making it a viable alternative to traditional cable television.  fuboTV has delivered impressive returns, with its shares soaring 186.2% in the past year, pushing market value to approximately $1.28 billion.

Calumet, Inc. (CLMT Quick QuoteCLMT - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +49.62% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is set to release its earnings on Aug. 8. Calumet, currently valued at around $1.34 billion, has seen its stock price increase by 35.2% over the last 12 months.

It is a publicly traded company that specializes in manufacturing a diverse range of specialty branded products and renewable fuels. Headquartered in Indianapolis, IN, Calumet produces a range of products, including lubricating oils, solvents, waxes and synthetic materials, for various consumer and industrial markets.