Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.

The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.

Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.

With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.

In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Johnson & Johnson?

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ Quick QuoteJNJ - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $2.61 a share, just 29 days from its upcoming earnings release on April 15, 2025.

By taking the percentage difference between the $2.61 Most Accurate Estimate and the $2.59 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Johnson & Johnson has an Earnings ESP of +0.75%. Investors should also know that JNJ is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

JNJ is just one of a large group of Medical stocks with a positive ESP figure. Catalyst Pharmaceutical (CPRX Quick QuoteCPRX - Free Report) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.

Slated to report earnings on May 14, 2025, Catalyst Pharmaceutical holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is $0.55 a share 58 days from its next quarterly update.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Catalyst Pharmaceutical is $0.53, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +2.83%.

JNJ and CPRX's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>