It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Carlisle (CSL Quick QuoteCSL - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 1.7% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Carlisle due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Carlisle Q4 Earnings Miss, Construction Materials Sales Up Y/Y

Carlisle reported fourth-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings of $4.47 per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.48. However, the bottom line increased 7% year over year.

Carlisle’s total revenues of $1.12 billion missed the consensus estimate of $1.15 billion. The top line decreased 0.4% year over year.

For 2024, CSL reported net revenues of $5 billion, which increased 9.1% year over year. For the year, the company’s adjusted earnings were $20.20 per share, up 30.2% year over year.

Segmental Discussion

Carlisle has divested its Carlisle Interconnect Technologies segment. The company now reports under the following two segments.

Revenues from the Carlisle Construction Materials segment increased 2.2% year over year to $856.3 million. Our estimate for segmental revenues was $856.3 million. Organic revenues increased 1.8%, driven by strong re-roofing activity. Adjusted EBITDA of $245 million decreased 4% year over year.

Revenues from the Carlisle Weatherproofing Technologies segment decreased 7% year over year to $289 million, due to soft residential end markets and lower pricing in select product categories. Our estimate for segmental revenues was $304.9 million. Organic revenues slipped 8%. Adjusted EBITDA of $53 million declined 24% year over year.

Margin Profile

Carlisle’s cost of sales increased 1.4% year over year to $717.4 million. Selling and administrative expenses increased 11% to $174.9 million. Research and development expenses totaled $8.8 million, up 10% year over year.

CSL recorded an operating income of $224.0 million, down 11.7% year over year. The operating margin decreased 260 basis points to 19.9% from 22.5% in the year-ago quarter. Our estimate for the operating margin was pegged at 17.8%.

Carlisle’s Balance Sheet and Cash Flow

At the end of the fourth quarter, Carlisle had cash and cash equivalents of $753.5 million compared with $576.7 million at the end of 2023. Long-term debt (including the current portion) was $1.89 billion compared with $2.29 billion reported at the end of 2023.

In 2024, CSL generated net cash of $1.03 billion from operating activities compared with $1.02 billion in the year-ago period.

In the same period, CSL rewarded its shareholders with a dividend payment of $172.4 million, up 7.6% year over year. The company bought back shares worth $1.59 billion, up 76.2% year over year.

Outlook

Management expects revenues to witness a mid-single-digit increase in 2025. It anticipates to deliver earnings growth of more than 10% on a year-over-year basis. Adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to expand approximately 50 bps. The free cash flow margin is anticipated to be more than 15%.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -14.82% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Carlisle has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Carlisle has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.