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For traders, it's a case of which way to look next.
With their screens flooded by headlines, from tariffs, and shaky Middle East ceasefire deals, to Russia and Ukraine.
There's also:
A G20 meeting
Asia-Pacific central bank meetings, and
WalMart earnings in the mix
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
(1) Before Markets Open (BMO) on Thursday, Feb. 20th Walmart Reports
Walmart's (WMT - Free Report) quarterly report on Thursday should shed light on the health of the U.S. consumer as Wall Street frets about strong inflation.
The retailing giant's results could highlight the impact of inflation on shopping behavior and offer early insight into the potential fallout of President Trump' tariffs.
Consumer sentiment dropped in February to a seven-month low, a recent survey showed, while inflation expectations rocketed.
U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in nearly 1-1/2 years in January, latest data shows.
No wonder U.S. rate cut bets are being dialed back.
Overall, S&P500 companies are set to have increased Q4-24 earnings by +15.1% from a year earlier, against expectations of a +9.6% increase as of Jan 1st, according to LSEG IBES.
(2) The Price of Gold Is Rising… and Rising
There seems to be little stopping gold's surge.
A classic "inverse" relationship with the U.S. dollar, where the gold price drops when the U.S. currency strengthens, appears to be over.
It's not just a matter of speculators deciding that gold is the next new thing. Much of the demand stems from concern that Trump's "America First" policies could upend global trade, financial flows and geopolitics.
Those themes might be apparent at the Feb 20th-21st G20 meeting, a gathering U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will miss.
Central banks are buying gold, partly to diversify reserves to include fewer dollars.
Bullion traders are funneling gold into New York vaults to minimize the risk of Trump slapping tariffs on precious metals.
Gold has roared to around $3,000 — up over +10% since Trump's election win. Next stop: $4,000?
(3) Will There Be War or Peace in Ukraine and Israel?
The fate of two of the world's worst conflicts are suddenly extremely live, thanks to Donald Trump's interventions.
Saturday could be make-or-break for the fragile 43-day-old ceasefire between Israel and Hamas — a deal both sides accuse the other of violating, and rocked by Trump's shock plan to clear out Gaza for a "Riviera of the Middle East.”
The all-crucial truce depends on whether Hamas releases the next group of Israeli hostages on schedule and Jerusalem — and Trump — are satisfied.
Then there's the Ukraine-Russia war. Trump has been busy there too, laying the groundwork for its likely endgame in lengthy talks with Russia's Vladimir Putin and Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky.
Europe's markets have rallied on peace hopes. As the third anniversary of Russia's invasion nears, Moscow now controls a fifth of Ukraine.
(4) On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Refreshes Policy. CBs in New Zealand and Indonesia Reset Policy This Week, too.
It's a central bank-packed week in Asia-Pacific with rate decisions in Australia, New Zealand, and Indonesia.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely tipped to cut rates on Tuesday, though economists still expect some hawkishness given the strength in the labor market.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is tipped to ease by half a percentage point, after lowering rates by a whopping 125 basis points already. The question now is how low the RBNZ can go given the gloomy economic reality?
Over in Indonesia, it's trickier. After a surprise rate cut last month, economists expect Bank Indonesia to remain on hold, even as recent inflation and growth data underscore the case for more easing.
A weakening rupiah is keeping its hands tied.
(5) Latest U.K. Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) Data Lands
The Bank of England may soon be back to writing public letters explaining why it is missing its inflation target, just days after cutting rates to 4.5%.
Some economists think data on Wednesday will show inflation rose as high as +3.2% in January from +2.5% in December, taking it more than a percentage point above its +2% target and requiring Governor Andrew Bailey to write a letter of explanation to finance minister Rachel Reeves after March's rate meeting.
The BoE estimates inflation was only +2.8% in January, but is on track to hit +3.7% by Q3 due to one-off factors that could push up regulated energy prices, water bills, bus fares and private-school fees.
Tuesday's Q4 labor market data is also in focus. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill described recent 6% private-sector pay growth as “a little bit aberrant” and said companies' forecasts of +3.7% wage rises for 2025 were still too high for comfort.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
(1) United Airlines (UAL - Free Report) : This is a $101 a share stock, with a market cap of $34.3B. It is found in the Zacks Airline Transportation industry. I see a Zacks Value Score of A, a Zacks Growth Score of C, and a Zacks Momentum Score of C.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
United Airlines Holdings is based in Chicago. The carrier changed its name from United Continental Holdings to United Airlines Holdings in June 2019. It is the holding company for both United Airlines and Continental Airlines.
United Airlines, whose fiscal year coincides with the calendar year, transports people and cargo not only throughout North America but also destinations in Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Latin America.
The carrier's hubs are at Newark Liberty International Airport, Chicago O’Hare International Airport, Denver International Airport, George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston, Los Angeles International Airport, A.B. Won Pat International Airport in the U.S. territory Guam, San Francisco International Airport and Washington Dulles International Airport.
Passenger revenues account for the bulk of its top line. As a result of the post-COVID normalization in air travel, passenger revenues increased 22.5% year over year in 2023 to $49.1 billion and accounted for the bulk (92%) of the top line. Cargo revenues contributed 2.8% while the rest came from other sources. Cargo revenues declined 31.1% from 2022 levels.
Domestic revenues (United States and Canada) accounted for 60.4% of the total revenues in 2023. Atlantic, Pacific and Latin American regions accounted for 20.4%, 9.8% and 9.4% respectively in 2023.
As of Dec 31st, 2023 the carrier's total fleet size stood at 1,358, out of which 945 were mainline (812 were owned and 133 leased) and 413 regional (128 owned and 285 either owned or leased by regional carriers).
(2) Ashtead Group (ASHTY - Free Report) : This is a $255 a share stock, with a market cap of $27.7B. It is found in the Zacks Industrial Services industry. I see a Zacks Value Score of B, a Zacks Growth Score of C, and a Zacks Momentum Score of D.
Ashtead Group Plc is an equipment company which provides rental solutions primarily in United States and United Kingdom.
The company's operating segments consists of Sunbelt Rentals and A-Plant.
Sunbelt Rentals provides pump and power, climate control and scaffolding services.
A-Plant operates through Eve Trakway Limited, which constructs temporary roadways and barriers; PSS, which offers trenchless technology and fusion services; and FLG services.
Ashtead Group Plc is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
(3) Synchrony Financial (SYF - Free Report) : This is a $64 a share stock, with a market cap of $24.9B. It is found in the Zacks Financial – Miscellaneous Services industry. I see a Zacks Value Score of A, a Zacks Growth Score of B, and a Zacks Momentum Score of A.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Synchrony Financial, one of the nation’s premier consumer financial services companies, offers a wide range of credit products through a diverse group of national and regional retailers, local merchants, manufacturers, buying groups, industry associations and health and wellness providers.
Synchrony Financial focuses on generating financial flexibility for its customers by offering private label credit cards, Dual Card, and general purpose co-branded credit cards, promotional financing and installment lending, and loyalty programs.
Although the company operates via a single business segment, it offers its credit products primarily through five sales platforms – Home & Auto, Digital, Diversified & Value, Health & Wellness and Lifestyle.
These platforms, offering comprehensive payment and financing solutions, are organized by the types of products and the partners the company works with.
SYF’s total interest and fees on loans amounted to $21.6 billion for 2024.
Home & Auto (accounted for 27% the company’s total interest and fees on loans for 2024): This platform is a leading solutions provider through partners and merchants delivering home and automotive merchandise and services
Digital (29%): This platform provides solutions via partners and merchants aiming to connect with consumers through digital channels
Diversified & Value (22%): This platform offers solutions through partners and merchants providing a varied assortment of merchandise
Health & Wellness (17%): This platform provides solutions intended to benefit those looking for availing health and wellness care for one’s own self as well as for their families and pets
Lifestyle (5%): This platform delivers solutions via partners and merchants for helping those who provide merchandise in power sports, outdoor power equipment, and other industries such as sporting goods, apparel, jewelry and music
Corporate: The platform encompasses activity and balances linked with specific program agreements with retail partners and merchants, which will either be not renewed beyond their current expiry date or else not manage managed within the above-mentioned five sales platforms
Key Global Macro
On Monday, a President’s Day holiday took place in the USA. Markets were closed.
The Fed’s Harker, Bowman, and Waller gave speeches.
On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) issues its rate statement. A move to 4.1% policy rate is expected, a cut from 4.35%.
The Bank of Canada’s (BoC) core CPI for January lands. I see +1.8% y/y is the prior reading.
On Wednesday, Mainland China’s house price index (HPI) lands with its JAN data. I see -5.3% y/y deflation is underway there.
There is a non-monetary policy European Central Bank (ECB) meeting.
U.S. Housing Starts (prior at 1.499M) and Building Permits (prior at 1.482M) come out for January.
The latest FOMC minutes get issued.
On Thursday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) issues its latest monetary policy decisions. A 3.1% policy rate is the prior mark.
U.S. initial Weekly Jobless Claims come out. 213K was the number from last week. That data is still quite low.
On Friday, the Eurozone HCOB manufacturing PMI for FEB comes out. I see a prior 46.6 reading.
The U.S. S&P global manufacturing PMI for FEB comes out. I see a 51.2 prior reading.
Conclusion
Here is the latest Q4-24 earnings update, gratis Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian (dated Feb. 13th, 2025):
In terms of the Q4-24 S&P500 earnings season scorecard, we now have results from 370 members, or 74% of the index’s total membership.
Total earnings for these companies are up +12.1%
On +5.6% higher revenues
77.8% beat EPS estimates
64.6% beat revenue estimates
This a notably better performance from these companies — relative to what Zacks has seen in other recent periods — particularly in terms of the EPS growth pace.
Enjoy an excellent trading week!
Warm Regards,
John Blank, PhD. Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist
See More Zacks Research for These Tickers
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U.S. Big-Box Retailers Report: Global Week Ahead
What can happen in this Global Week Ahead?
For traders, it's a case of which way to look next.
With their screens flooded by headlines, from tariffs, and shaky Middle East ceasefire deals, to Russia and Ukraine.
There's also:
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
(1) Before Markets Open (BMO) on Thursday, Feb. 20th Walmart Reports
Walmart's (WMT - Free Report) quarterly report on Thursday should shed light on the health of the U.S. consumer as Wall Street frets about strong inflation.
The retailing giant's results could highlight the impact of inflation on shopping behavior and offer early insight into the potential fallout of President Trump' tariffs.
Consumer sentiment dropped in February to a seven-month low, a recent survey showed, while inflation expectations rocketed.
U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in nearly 1-1/2 years in January, latest data shows.
No wonder U.S. rate cut bets are being dialed back.
Other U.S. retailers reporting in coming weeks, include Home Depot (HD - Free Report) , TJX Cos. (TJX - Free Report) and Target (TGT - Free Report) .
Overall, S&P500 companies are set to have increased Q4-24 earnings by +15.1% from a year earlier, against expectations of a +9.6% increase as of Jan 1st, according to LSEG IBES.
(2) The Price of Gold Is Rising… and Rising
There seems to be little stopping gold's surge.
A classic "inverse" relationship with the U.S. dollar, where the gold price drops when the U.S. currency strengthens, appears to be over.
It's not just a matter of speculators deciding that gold is the next new thing. Much of the demand stems from concern that Trump's "America First" policies could upend global trade, financial flows and geopolitics.
Those themes might be apparent at the Feb 20th-21st G20 meeting, a gathering U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will miss.
Central banks are buying gold, partly to diversify reserves to include fewer dollars.
Bullion traders are funneling gold into New York vaults to minimize the risk of Trump slapping tariffs on precious metals.
Gold has roared to around $3,000 — up over +10% since Trump's election win. Next stop: $4,000?
(3) Will There Be War or Peace in Ukraine and Israel?
The fate of two of the world's worst conflicts are suddenly extremely live, thanks to Donald Trump's interventions.
Saturday could be make-or-break for the fragile 43-day-old ceasefire between Israel and Hamas — a deal both sides accuse the other of violating, and rocked by Trump's shock plan to clear out Gaza for a "Riviera of the Middle East.”
The all-crucial truce depends on whether Hamas releases the next group of Israeli hostages on schedule and Jerusalem — and Trump — are satisfied.
Then there's the Ukraine-Russia war. Trump has been busy there too, laying the groundwork for its likely endgame in lengthy talks with Russia's Vladimir Putin and Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky.
Europe's markets have rallied on peace hopes. As the third anniversary of Russia's invasion nears, Moscow now controls a fifth of Ukraine.
(4) On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Refreshes Policy. CBs in New Zealand and Indonesia Reset Policy This Week, too.
It's a central bank-packed week in Asia-Pacific with rate decisions in Australia, New Zealand, and Indonesia.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely tipped to cut rates on Tuesday, though economists still expect some hawkishness given the strength in the labor market.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is tipped to ease by half a percentage point, after lowering rates by a whopping 125 basis points already. The question now is how low the RBNZ can go given the gloomy economic reality?
Over in Indonesia, it's trickier. After a surprise rate cut last month, economists expect Bank Indonesia to remain on hold, even as recent inflation and growth data underscore the case for more easing.
A weakening rupiah is keeping its hands tied.
(5) Latest U.K. Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) Data Lands
The Bank of England may soon be back to writing public letters explaining why it is missing its inflation target, just days after cutting rates to 4.5%.
Some economists think data on Wednesday will show inflation rose as high as +3.2% in January from +2.5% in December, taking it more than a percentage point above its +2% target and requiring Governor Andrew Bailey to write a letter of explanation to finance minister Rachel Reeves after March's rate meeting.
The BoE estimates inflation was only +2.8% in January, but is on track to hit +3.7% by Q3 due to one-off factors that could push up regulated energy prices, water bills, bus fares and private-school fees.
Tuesday's Q4 labor market data is also in focus. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill described recent 6% private-sector pay growth as “a little bit aberrant” and said companies' forecasts of +3.7% wage rises for 2025 were still too high for comfort.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
(1) United Airlines (UAL - Free Report) : This is a $101 a share stock, with a market cap of $34.3B. It is found in the Zacks Airline Transportation industry. I see a Zacks Value Score of A, a Zacks Growth Score of C, and a Zacks Momentum Score of C.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
United Airlines Holdings is based in Chicago. The carrier changed its name from United Continental Holdings to United Airlines Holdings in June 2019. It is the holding company for both United Airlines and Continental Airlines.
United Airlines, whose fiscal year coincides with the calendar year, transports people and cargo not only throughout North America but also destinations in Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Latin America.
The carrier's hubs are at Newark Liberty International Airport, Chicago O’Hare International Airport, Denver International Airport, George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston, Los Angeles International Airport, A.B. Won Pat International Airport in the U.S. territory Guam, San Francisco International Airport and Washington Dulles International Airport.
Passenger revenues account for the bulk of its top line. As a result of the post-COVID normalization in air travel, passenger revenues increased 22.5% year over year in 2023 to $49.1 billion and accounted for the bulk (92%) of the top line. Cargo revenues contributed 2.8% while the rest came from other sources. Cargo revenues declined 31.1% from 2022 levels.
Domestic revenues (United States and Canada) accounted for 60.4% of the total revenues in 2023. Atlantic, Pacific and Latin American regions accounted for 20.4%, 9.8% and 9.4% respectively in 2023.
As of Dec 31st, 2023 the carrier's total fleet size stood at 1,358, out of which 945 were mainline (812 were owned and 133 leased) and 413 regional (128 owned and 285 either owned or leased by regional carriers).
(2) Ashtead Group (ASHTY - Free Report) : This is a $255 a share stock, with a market cap of $27.7B. It is found in the Zacks Industrial Services industry. I see a Zacks Value Score of B, a Zacks Growth Score of C, and a Zacks Momentum Score of D.
Ashtead Group Plc is an equipment company which provides rental solutions primarily in United States and United Kingdom.
The company's operating segments consists of Sunbelt Rentals and A-Plant.
Ashtead Group Plc is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
(3) Synchrony Financial (SYF - Free Report) : This is a $64 a share stock, with a market cap of $24.9B. It is found in the Zacks Financial – Miscellaneous Services industry. I see a Zacks Value Score of A, a Zacks Growth Score of B, and a Zacks Momentum Score of A.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Synchrony Financial, one of the nation’s premier consumer financial services companies, offers a wide range of credit products through a diverse group of national and regional retailers, local merchants, manufacturers, buying groups, industry associations and health and wellness providers.
Synchrony Financial focuses on generating financial flexibility for its customers by offering private label credit cards, Dual Card, and general purpose co-branded credit cards, promotional financing and installment lending, and loyalty programs.
Although the company operates via a single business segment, it offers its credit products primarily through five sales platforms – Home & Auto, Digital, Diversified & Value, Health & Wellness and Lifestyle.
These platforms, offering comprehensive payment and financing solutions, are organized by the types of products and the partners the company works with.
SYF’s total interest and fees on loans amounted to $21.6 billion for 2024.
Key Global Macro
On Monday, a President’s Day holiday took place in the USA. Markets were closed.
The Fed’s Harker, Bowman, and Waller gave speeches.
On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) issues its rate statement. A move to 4.1% policy rate is expected, a cut from 4.35%.
The Bank of Canada’s (BoC) core CPI for January lands. I see +1.8% y/y is the prior reading.
On Wednesday, Mainland China’s house price index (HPI) lands with its JAN data. I see -5.3% y/y deflation is underway there.
There is a non-monetary policy European Central Bank (ECB) meeting.
U.S. Housing Starts (prior at 1.499M) and Building Permits (prior at 1.482M) come out for January.
The latest FOMC minutes get issued.
On Thursday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) issues its latest monetary policy decisions. A 3.1% policy rate is the prior mark.
U.S. initial Weekly Jobless Claims come out. 213K was the number from last week. That data is still quite low.
On Friday, the Eurozone HCOB manufacturing PMI for FEB comes out. I see a prior 46.6 reading.
The U.S. S&P global manufacturing PMI for FEB comes out. I see a 51.2 prior reading.
Conclusion
Here is the latest Q4-24 earnings update, gratis Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian (dated Feb. 13th, 2025):
In terms of the Q4-24 S&P500 earnings season scorecard, we now have results from 370 members, or 74% of the index’s total membership.
This a notably better performance from these companies — relative to what Zacks has seen in other recent periods — particularly in terms of the EPS growth pace.
Enjoy an excellent trading week!
Warm Regards,
John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist