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Knight-Swift to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

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Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2024 results on Jan. 22, after market close.

Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Knight-Swift has a disappointing earnings surprise history, having lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters (outpaced the mark in the remaining quarter), the average miss being 31.44%.

Let’s see how things have shaped up for KNX this earnings season.

Q4 Expectations

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Knight-Swift’s fourth-quarter 2024 revenues is pegged at $1.89 billion, indicating 1.92% year-over-year growth.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Truckload revenues is pegged at $1.29 billion, higher than our estimate of $1.28 billion.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Less-Than-Truckload revenues is pegged at $316 million, indicating a 14.5% increase from the fourth quarter of 2023 reported number. Our estimate is pegged at $319.2 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Logistics revenues is pegged at $157 million, indicating a 4.8% decrease from the fourth quarter of 2023 reported number. Our estimate is pegged at $156.2 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Intermodal revenues is pegged at $100 million, indicating a 6.3% increase from the fourth quarter of 2023 reported number. Our estimate is pegged at $101.9 million.

On the flip side, high costs related to driver wages, equipment, maintenance, fuel, and other expenses continue to weigh on Knight-Swift’s bottom line. KNX’s financial metrics indicate that its leverage is elevated, which is a massive negative for its shareholders. Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for KNX’s fourth-quarter 2024 earnings has been revised downward by 8.3% in the past 90 days to 33 cents per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate lies within the company’s guided range of 32-36 cents.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Knight-Swift this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Knight-Swift has an Earnings ESP of +1.08% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Highlights of Q3

Knight-Swift's third-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings of 34 cents per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny but declined 17.1% year over year. KNX’s bottom line was weighed down by a $6.6 million increase in net interest expense and a 6.1 percentage point increase in the effective tax rate.

Total revenues of $1.87 million missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.94 million and declined 7.1% year over year. Revenues, excluding truckload and LTL fuel surcharge, fell 5.3% year over year to $1.68 billion.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

C.H. Robinson (CHRW - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.32% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. CHRW is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2024 earnings on Jan. 29. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 earnings has been revised 7.7% upward in the past 90 days. CHRW’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and missed once, the average beat being 10.3%.

Southwest Airlines (LUV - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.78% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. LUV is set to release third-quarter results on Jan. 30. Upbeat air-travel demand is likely to have aided the quarterly performance.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 earnings has moved north 32.2% in the past 90 days. LUV’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and missed once, delivering an average surprise of 111.62%.

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