It has been about a month since the last earnings report for B2Gold (BTG Quick QuoteBTG - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 11.5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is B2Gold due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

B2Gold Earnings Miss Estimates in Q3, Revenues Dip Y/Y

B2Gold reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 2 cents for third-quarter 2024, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 5 cents. The reported figure marked a year-over-year plunge of 60%.

Including one-time items, BTG incurred a loss of 48 cents per share, wider than the prior-year quarter’s loss of 3 cents.

B2Gold generated revenues of $448 million in third-quarter 2024 compared with the prior-year quarter’s $478 million. The 29.3% increase in average realized gold prices was partially offset by a 27.5% fall in gold ounces sold in the quarter. In the September-end quarter, B2Gold recorded a consolidated gold production of 180,553 ounces, down 19.8% year over year. 

In the third quarter, the Fekola mine's production fell short of expectations due to the delayed access to high-grade ore, leading to reduced processing of high-grade material.

BTG’s Q3 Margins Dip Y/Y, Costs Rise

The company reported total consolidated cash operating costs of $1,061 per ounce in the reported quarter, up 40.5% year over year. Total consolidated all-in-sustaining costs of $1,650 per ounce were 30% higher than the prior-year quarter.

In the July-September quarter, the cost of sales was $313 million, up 2% year over year. The gross profit fell 20.9% year over year to $135 million. The gross margin fell to 30.1% in the reported quarter from the prior-year quarter’s 35.7%.
The operating loss in the reported quarter was $562 million against the prior-year quarter’s operating income of $27.5 million.

B2Gold’s Q3 Cash Flow & Balance Sheet Update

BTG’s cash and cash equivalents were $431 million at the end of the third quarter compared with $307 million at the end of 2023. The company used $16 million in cash from operating activities in the September-end quarter against a cash inflow of $110 million in the year-ago quarter.

B2Gold’s long-term debt was $222 million at the end of the third quarter compared with $176 million at the end of 2023.

BTG’s 2024 Outlook

B2Gold expects 2024 total gold production at the low end of 800,000-870,000 ounces (including 20,000 ounces of attributable production from Calibre). B2Gold’s production in 2023 was 1,061,060 ounces (which included 68,717 ounces of attributable production from Calibre).

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in fresh estimates.

The consensus estimate has shifted 36.36% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, B2Gold has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, B2Gold has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.