Marriott International, Inc. (MAR Quick QuoteMAR - Free Report) is scheduled to release third-quarter 2024 results on Nov. 4, before the opening bell.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings marginally beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.4% while revenues missed the same by 0.9%.

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Marriott’s earnings topped the consensus mark in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on the remaining occasion, with the average surprise being 16.9%.

MAR’s Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) has remained unchanged at $2.31 in the past 60 days. The expected figure indicates growth of 9.5% from the year-ago quarter’s $2.11 per share.

For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $6.28 billion, indicating growth of 6% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure of $5.93 billion.

Factors Likely to Shape Marriott’s Quarterly Results

Revenues

Marriott’s third-quarter revenues are likely to have increased year over year, driven by solid growth in revenue per available room (RevPAR) from rising global leisure and business travel demand. The company has been experiencing growth in both its international regions and the United States & Canada, where occupancy and average daily rates have shown year-over-year improvements.

Moreover, Marriott’s focus on unit expansion, increased co-branded credit card fees, benefits from its travel and loyalty program and the launch of MGM Collection with Marriott Bonvoy are likely to have aided its third-quarter performance.

Owing to the aforementioned tailwinds, Marriott anticipates gross fee revenues to be in the $1.275-$1.290 billion range, up from the year-ago quarter’s $1.197 billion. Our model predicts gross fee revenues to be $1.28 billion, up 7.1% year over year.

Although demand softness in China is concerning, strong demand and booking trends across other major international markets, including the Asia Pacific region, supported by steady growth in the United States and Canada, are likely to have favored the company’s performance.

Geographically, the company expects year-over-year worldwide RevPAR to be within 3-4%, with the international RevPAR being comparatively higher than the United States & Canada RevPAR.

We expect RevPAR in worldwide, international and the United States & Canada markets to grow 3.9% to $134.8, 5.2% to $126.7 and 1.6% to $136.1, respectively, year over year. We also expect Asia Pacific RevPAR to grow 9.6% to $129 compared with the prior year.

Our model also predicts the total number of rooms to increase 5.5% to 1,667,376 units on a year-over-year basis.

Margins

Although the company has been witnessing lower volume per guest (VPGs) and higher marketing and sales costs, it is expected to have achieved year-over-year growth in margin and earnings. Robust global travel demand, increased international bookings and gains in RevPAR along with its efficient operating model are likely to have contributed to this growth.

For the third quarter, Marriott expects general, administrative and other expenses in the range of $250-$240 million, up from $239 million reported in the prior-year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA is expected between $1.225 billion and $1.250 billion, up from $1.142 billion in the year-ago quarter. Also, the company expects adjusted EPS to be in the range of $2.27-$2.33.

Our model expects the company’s general, administrative and other expenses to increase 2.4% to $244.8 million year over year. Also, adjusted EBITDA is expected to rise 9.1% to $1.246 billion year over year.

Furthermore, we also expect adjusted EBITDA margin and adjusted operating margin to increase 110 basis points (bps) to 20.4% and 140 bps to 17.6%, respectively, year over year.

What Our Model Predicts for MAR

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Marriott this time around. The company possesses the right combination of the two key ingredients, a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), that increase the odds of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for MAR is +5.03%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some other stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary space, which according to our model, too, have the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around.

DraftKings Inc. (DKNG Quick QuoteDKNG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +36.39% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

DKNG is expected to register a 31.2% increase year over year in earnings for the to-be-reported quarter. It reported better-than-expected earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with the average surprise being 59.5%.

Choice Hotels International, Inc. (CHH Quick QuoteCHH - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.84% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

CHH is expected to have registered a 5% increase year over year in earnings for the to-be-reported quarter. It reported better-than-expected earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with the average surprise being 3.4%.

Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB Quick QuoteABNB - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.12% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

ABNB’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to decrease 9.2% year over year. It reported better-than-expected earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 25%.