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LyondellBasell to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

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LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2024 earnings on Nov. 1, before the opening bell.

Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.

The company surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters and missed once, the average earnings surprise being around 7.5%. LYB delivered a positive earnings surprise of 0.5% in the last reported quarter.

LyondellBasell’s third-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from favorable demand and lower feedstock and energy costs amid headwinds associated with Hurricane Beryl.

LYB stock has lost 3.2% in the past year against the Zacks Chemicals Diversified industry’s 6.7% rise.

 

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Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

What Do LYB’s Revenue Estimates Say?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s revenues is pegged at $10,271.8 million, indicating a decline of around 3.3% from the previous year’s level.

For the Olefins and Polyolefins – Americas division, the consensus estimate stands at $3,036.3 million, suggesting a year-over-year increase of 5.4%.

The same for the Olefins and Polyolefins – Europe, Asia & International division is pegged at $2,810.4 million, calling for a 14.9% increase from last year’s tally.

For LYB’s Advanced Polymer Solutions segment, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter revenues is $964.7 million, suggesting a 7.3% rise year over year.

The consensus estimate for the Intermediaries and Derivatives segment’s revenues is pinned at $2,896 million, suggesting a 6% decrease from the previous year’s levels.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Refining segment's revenues is pegged at $1,764.9 million, indicating a decline of 33.8%. The same for the Technology segment's revenues is pegged at $177.8 million, suggesting an 18.4% decline from the year-ago figure.

Factors at Play for LYB Stock

LYB’s third-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from continued strong seasonal demand in the Olefins and Polyolefins – Americas unit. Margins in this segment are expected to have been supported by lower feedstock and energy costs. Demand for olefins and polyolefins is also likely to have been stable in the Europe, Asia & International division. In the Intermediaries and Derivatives unit, LYB is seeing strong oxyfuels margins amid the summer driving season, which is expected to have continued in the September quarter. Margins are also likely to have been aided by lower raw material costs. The company’s strategic actions are expected to have supported volumes in Advanced Polymer Solutions. The Technology segment is likely to have benefited from higher licensing revenues.

LYB, on its second-quarter call, stated that it anticipates margins, in the third quarter, to gain from the lower costs of natural gas and natural gas liquids used in its North American and Middle Eastern production against higher oil-based expenses in most other locations. With the ongoing summer driving season, oxyfuel margins are projected to stay higher than historical levels because of high octane premiums.

The unfavorable impacts of Hurricane Beryl are expected to reflect on LYB’s third-quarter performance. The storm impacted the company’s operations across the U.S. Gulf Coast in early July. LYB expects downtime associated with Hurricane Beryl to impact its EBITDA by roughly $65 million in the third quarter, with about 75% of the impact expected in the Olefins and Polyolefins – Americas division.

LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Stock Price and EPS Surprise

LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Price and EPS Surprise

LyondellBasell Industries N.V. price-eps-surprise | LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Quote

What Our Model Unveils for LYB Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for LyondellBasell this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for LYB is -5.39%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for the third quarter is currently pegged at $2.03. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: LYB currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Basic Materials Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on Oct. 30, has an Earnings ESP of +5.82% and carries a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus estimate for AEM’s earnings for the third quarter is currently pegged at 98 cents.

DuPont de Nemours, Inc. (DD - Free Report) , slated to release earnings on Nov. 5, has an Earnings ESP of +1.00% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

The consensus mark for DD’s third-quarter earnings is currently pegged at $1.03.

Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC - Free Report) , scheduled to release third-quarter earnings on Nov. 5, has an Earnings ESP of +12.29%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinross Gold's earnings for the third quarter is currently pegged at 17 cents. KGC currently carries a Zacks Rank #1.

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