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Martin Marietta to Post Q3 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

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Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2024 results on Oct. 30, before the opening bell.

Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings and revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.6% and 2.6%, respectively. On a year-over-year basis, both metrics declined 6.1% and 3%, respectively.

Martin Marietta’s earnings topped the consensus mark in three of the last four quarters and missed on one occasion, with an average surprise of 7.2%.

The Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MLM’s third-quarter earnings is pegged at $6.78 per share, which decreased from $6.82 in the past seven days. This suggests a decline of 2.3% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure of $6.94.

The consensus estimate for net sales is pegged at $1.97 billion, indicating a 1.4% decrease from the prior-year quarter’s figure of $1.99 billion.

Factors to Note

Martin Marietta’s third-quarter revenues are expected to have showcased strong pricing trends. However, this positive aspect is counterbalanced by the challenges associated with aggregates volumes organically due to adverse weather conditions. Hurricane Helene (followed immediately by Hurricane Milton) certainly has been a negative indication of construction activity, mostly in Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Alabama and Georgia.

Amid soft volume, strong pricing gains in aggregates, acceleration in infrastructure spending and accretive acquisitions are likely to have offset the Hurricane impacts. MLM’s business has been sensitive to changes in construction spending, particularly housing and public construction. Infrastructure construction, particularly for aggregates-intensive highways, roads and streets, might have also contributed to its performance in the quarter, as contractors advanced projects that have been awarded and funded.

Our model suggests Aggregates pricing to increase to $22.38 per ton, marking 12% year-over-year growth. We expect Aggregates revenues to increase to $1.25 billion from $1.12 billion a year ago.

We expect cement revenues to decline 31.3% year over year to $134.1 million. Cement pricing is anticipated to rise 8.4% to $192.42 per ton. Our expectation for Cement volume is pegged at 0.7 million tons, down 36.6% from a year ago.

We expect the Building Material segment revenues, which comprised 95.4% of total revenues in the second quarter of 2024, to decline 1% year over year to $1.90 billion. Our expectation for gross profit for the Building Material unit is pegged at $669.3 million compared with $649.5 million reported a year ago.

Our model predicts Magnesia Specialties revenues to increase 1.6% year over year to $76.7 million. We project gross profit for the Magnesia Specialties unit at $23.8 million compared with $21.4 million reported a year ago.

However, higher cost inflation, a rise in transportation and insurance costs, as well as labor costs, may have put pressure on the bottom line in the third quarter.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for MLM

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Martin Marietta this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: MLM has an Earnings ESP of -9.81%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some other companies in the Zacks Construction sector that, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the quarter to be reported.

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.92% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

LPX reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 25.2%. The company’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to decline 45.1%.

UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.37% and a Zacks Rank #3.

UFPI’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to decrease 13.8%. The company reported better-than-expected earnings in two of the last four quarters and missed on other two occasions, the average surprise being 4.6%.

Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.48% and a Zacks Rank #2.

HWM’s earnings topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 10.9%. Earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to increase 41.3% year over year.

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