Back to top

Image: Bigstock

Should You Buy, Sell or Hold Starbucks Stock Before Q4 Earnings?

Read MoreHide Full Article

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX - Free Report) is slated to release fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 numbers on Oct. 30, after the closing bell.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings met the Zacks Consensus Estimate. SBUX surpassed earnings estimates in one of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being a negative 1.7%.

Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Starbucks this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: Starbucks has an Earnings ESP of -6.32%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) at present.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Starbucks Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

 

Starbucks Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Starbucks Corporation price-eps-surprise | Starbucks Corporation Quote

Factors Influencing Q4 Performance

Starbucks' fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 performance is likely to have been hurt by dismal global comparable store sales. The company recently reported its preliminary results and highlighted that its intensified promotional efforts and broadened product range did not generate the expected increase in customer visits. In the United States, comparable store sales dropped significantly as more customers opted out of regular visits, which outweighed modest gains from higher average spending per visit. The downturn was compounded by struggles in China, where economic pressures and rising competition led to notable declines in transaction volume and the average ticket size, creating additional pressure on the company’s overall performance.

Q4 Preliminary Results

For the fiscal fourth quarter, the coffee giant saw a year-over-year global comparable store sales decline of 7%, with consolidated net revenues dipping 3% to $9.1 billion. GAAP earnings per share were 80 cents, reflecting a 25% year-over-year drop on a constant-currency basis. Adjusted earnings per share were 80 cents, down 24% year over year. A weak North America performance affected the quarterly performance. In the quarter, U.S. comparable store sales fell 6% year over year, thanks to a 10% drop in comparable transactions, overshadowed by a 4% increase in average ticket.

China, one of Starbucks' key international markets, also posted underwhelming preliminary results, with a 14% year-over-year drop in comparable store sales. This was attributed to an 8% decline in average ticket and a 6% decrease in transactions, exacerbated by stiff competition and a softening economic environment.

For the fiscal year, Starbucks reported a modest 1% increase in net revenues to $36.2 billion, although global comparable store sales declined 2%. Both GAAP and non-GAAP earnings per share stood at $3.31, down 8% and 6%, respectively, on a constant-currency basis.

Price Performance & Valuation

This year, the Restaurant industry underwhelmed investors, and Starbucks is no exception. Year to date, the SBUX stock has gained 1.4%.

Price Performance

 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

 

The SBUX stock is trading above the industry. With a forward 12-month Price/Earnings ratio of 27.53X, it sits above the industry average. The company is also trading currently at a premium compared with other industry players like Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI - Free Report) , Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ - Free Report) and Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR - Free Report) .

P/E (F12M)

 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

 

Investment Thoughts

Investors may want to avoid Starbucks at this time due to recent performance concerns and valuation challenges. Despite efforts to attract more customers with expanded promotions and product offerings, Starbucks' fiscal fourth-quarter preliminary results showed a drop in global comparable store sales and similarly underwhelming China sales. This was further exacerbated by heightened competition.

The company’s valuation — trading at a premium relative to industry peers, makes the stock expensive, given its current performance. Starbucks may not be an appealing investment until it demonstrates clearer signs of operational recovery and growth stability.

Published in