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KDP Gears Up for Q3 Earnings Report: What Should Investors Expect?

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Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP - Free Report) is set to release third-quarter 2024 results on Oct. 24, before the market opens. Analysts are anticipating another decent performance from this beverage and coffee company, with revenues and earnings per share expected to increase year over year.

Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.

For third-quarter revenues, the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $3.9 billion, indicating a 3.2% increase from the prior-year quarter’s figure. The consensus estimate for quarterly earnings has remained unchanged in the past 30 days at 51 cents per share. This figure calls for a 6.3% increase from the prior-year period. Also, the company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.94%, on average.

Keurig Dr Pepper, Inc Price and EPS Surprise

Keurig Dr Pepper, Inc Price and EPS Surprise

Keurig Dr Pepper, Inc price-eps-surprise | Keurig Dr Pepper, Inc Quote

Key Factors to Influence KDP’s Q3 Results

Keurig is positioned for growth in the upcoming quarter through a focus on consumer-centric innovation, which has been driving portfolio expansion into high-growth categories. This, combined with robust route-to-market capabilities, supports strong market performance. KDP’s emphasis on cost efficiency and capital discipline further solidifies its foundation.

The company is also expected to have benefited from consistent pricing actions, particularly in the Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs) category. These pricing actions, along with strong brand performance and solid in-market execution, are expected to have driven revenue growth in the to-be-reported quarter. KDP’s ability to maintain elasticity across most categories helps manage consumer demand, positioning the company for top-line growth in the third quarter.

Keurig has been experiencing strong momentum in its Refreshment Beverages segment, which has been a key growth driver. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for this segment is pegged at $854 million, indicating a significant 37.2% year-over-year increase. This growth is attributed to KDP's recent collaborations and the in-market success of the latest innovations. The segment’s performance is expected to have benefited from the growth of C4 Energy and CSDs, offering everyday value and variety.

Keurig’s third-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from market share gains across categories, particularly in CSDs with innovations like Canada Dry Fruit Splash and Dr Pepper's ongoing success. Outside CSDs, the company is slated to gain from progress on WonderWater and improved shipments for K-pod and Brewer.

Internationally, Penafiel is expanding in Mexico, and the company is optimistic about Electrolit in sports hydration. With strong marketing efforts like the “it's a Pepper thing” campaign, KDP is set for a strong third quarter. These, combined with continued product innovation and strategic marketing, are expected to have driven KDP’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

Management looks forward to strengthening the company’s international route-to-market capabilities and focuses on reinforcing its direct store delivery network. This is expected to aid the performance of its International business. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the international segment is pegged at $160 million, reflecting a 10.3% year-over-year increase.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for KDP

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Keurig this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Keurig currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.01% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Valuation Picture of KDP Stock

From a valuation perspective, Keurig stock is trading at a discount relative to historical and industry benchmarks. With a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 17.93X, below the five-year high of 18.73X and the Beverages - Soft drinks industry’s average of 21.29X, the stock offers compelling value for investors seeking exposure to the sector.

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Keurig shares have shown a strong upward trend, having gained 10.8% in the past three months, outpacing the industry’s growth of 4.4%. This performance highlights the company’s solid market position and positive investor sentiment.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

MGP Ingredients (MGPI - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.17% and a Zacks Rank of 2. MGPI is anticipated to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports third-quarter 2024 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MGP Ingredients quarterly revenues is pegged at $183.4 billion, indicating a decline of  13.4% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus estimate for MGP Ingredients has moved up by a penny in the past 30 days to $1.43 per share. The consensus estimate suggests 6.7% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. MGPI has delivered an earnings beat of 10%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Monster Beverage (MNST - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.13% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. MNST is likely to register top and bottom-line growth when it releases third-quarter 2024 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.92 billion, which suggests growth of 3.2% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

The consensus estimate for Monster Beverage’s quarterly earnings has moved down by a penny in the past 30 days to 42 cents per share. However, the consensus mark suggests growth of 2.4% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. MNST has delivered a negative earnings surprise of 3.4%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Coca-Cola (KO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.79% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. KO is likely to register a decline in the top-line growth when it releases third-quarter 2024 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $11.61 billion, which suggests a decline of 2.9% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

The consensus estimate for Coca-Cola’s quarterly earnings has moved down by a penny in the past 30 days to 74 cents per share. The consensus mark for earnings suggests flat results compared with the prior-year quarter. KO has delivered an earnings surprise of 4.7%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

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