Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.

We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.

Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.

The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.

Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.

Should You Consider United States Steel?

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. United States Steel earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.46 a share, just 16 days from its upcoming earnings release on October 31, 2024.

United States Steel's Earnings ESP sits at +3.8%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $0.46 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.44. X is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

X is just one of a large group of Basic Materials stocks with a positive ESP figure. DuPont de Nemours (DD Quick QuoteDD - Free Report) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.

DuPont de Nemours is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on November 6, 2024. DD's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $1.05 a share 22 days from its next earnings release.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DuPont de Nemours is $1.03, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +1%.

X and DD's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>