Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.

The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.

Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.

With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.

In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Chubb?

The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Chubb (CB Quick QuoteCB - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) 28 days from its next quarterly earnings release on October 22, 2024, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $4.92 a share.

Chubb's Earnings ESP sits at +1.39%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $4.92 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.86. CB is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

CB is one of just a large database of Finance stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Capital One (COF Quick QuoteCOF - Free Report) .

Capital One is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on October 24, 2024. COF's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $3.74 a share 30 days from its next earnings release.

Capital One's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +1.89% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.67.

CB and COF's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>